A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
