Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
